Roki Sasaki: The Next Monster of Cards

He’s “The Monster of Reiwa”, armed with a fastball touching 102 MPH, an out-of-this-world splitter, and freakishly efficient mechanics.

With apologies to Shohei Ohtani (sorry, not sorry), Roki Sasaki is the best Japanese pitching prospect we have ever seen.

Personal note: as a pitching-mechanics enthusiast and university-level pitching coach, I thoroughly enjoyed delving into the life and early career of this remarkable young man.

Collectors experienced a blast from the past in 2024. For the first time in a long while, a pitcher — Pirates ace Paul Skenes — was the most collected rookie in the hobby. The last time this happened was in 2010, when the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg set the baseball and collecting world on fire.

Consider this: how many power pitchers since Nolan Ryan can you name who have consistently avoided significant injuries and maintained All-Star-caliber numbers? Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens (*), Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer come to mind, but beyond them, the list is very short. This rarity makes Skenes’ rise even more remarkable and exciting for collectors.

So, even with a shaky start to the season, can we have a repeat rookie performance in 2025 with the Dodgers Roki Sasaki?

The Man, The Legend

Born on November 3, 2001, in Rikuzentakata, Iwate, Japan, Sasaki’s journey to professional baseball was marked by resilience, especially after surviving the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami at the age of nine, which tragically claimed the lives of his father and grandparents. Baseball became a source of solace and relief for Sasaki as he grew into his high school years.

In high school, his blazing fastball, which reached speeds of 101 mph, broke the Japanese high school velocity record, surpassing the legendary Ohtani (99.4 mph).

Sasaki’s professional career began in 2019, after being selected first overall in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) draft (known as the Rookie Selection Meeting) by the Chiba Lotte Marines. After a full year of training and development in 2020, he made his NPB debut the following season and quickly established himself as one of the league’s premier pitchers. In 2022, he threw a perfect game, tying the NPB record for strikeouts in a single game (19) and setting a new record for consecutive strikeouts (13). All told, Sasaki’s career record for the Marines was 29 wins and 15 losses with a 2.10 ERA and 505 strikeouts in 394.2 innings pitched.

Side note: the meaning of the word Reiwa, in Sasaki’s nickname, is “beautiful harmony”. It refers to his exceptional pitching dominance during the current “Reiwa” imperial era in Japan, which is considered a time of great change and progress. This era started on May 1st, 2019 when Naruhito Akihito took the throne as Japan’s 126th Emperor.

The Posting

Looking ahead, Roki Sasaki, now 23 years old and having grown two inches to stand at an imposing 6’4″ since entering the NPB, is poised to make a significant impact in North America. His former team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, posted him on December 10, 2024, making him available as a free agent to all 30 MLB teams. However, unlike the Dodgers’ signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a record-breaking $325 million contract in 2023, Sasaki’s under-25 status meant he was posted as an international rookie free agent. This restricted him to earning the league minimum salary and a maximum signing bonus of $7.5 million. Ultimately, Sasaki opted to join the Dodgers, securing a $6.5 million signing bonus and entering a six-year period of team control.

Sasaki’s decision to forego the potential of hundreds of millions of dollars in future earnings to compete against the best in North America speaks volumes about his competitive spirit and ambition.

As Sasaki transitions to MLB with the Los Angeles Dodgers, scouts and analysts are eager to observe how his exceptional skills will translate to the Big Leagues. Fans already got a glimpse of his abilities during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, where he showcased his talent with a 3.52 ERA and 11 strikeouts over 7.2 innings pitched. With his impressive track record and ability to perform under pressure, it’s easy to see why Sasaki was one of the most highly sought-after free agents this past off-season.

The Stuff

Sasaki has established himself as one of the most electrifying young pitchers in all of baseball today. At the core of Sasaki’s dominance is his signature fastball — a weapon of sheer velocity and movement. Consistently hitting 100 mph and peaking at 102.5 (165 kph), this pitch is more than just raw speed. Its movement makes it exceptionally difficult for batters to square up. However, in 2024 Sasaki’s fastball velocity and metrics took a bit of a dip, likely due to an oblique injury in 2023, leading to mild arm injuries he had during the season.

Complementing his fastball is a devastating splitter, which drops sharply as it approaches the plate, leading to an astounding 56.5% swing-and-miss rate in 2024 (MLB average is 34.5%). This pitch will be one of the best splitters in all of MLB once he makes his first appearance.

Pitching development guru Ben Brewster of Tread Athletics said in a fascinating video breakdown of Sasaki’s mechanics, “he really does have two absolutely unicorn-level pitches… no question, he would be one of the top MLB starters from a metrics standpoint.”

Sasaki’s pitching repertoire extends beyond his high-velocity fastball and elite splitter. He employs a sharp, biting slider and a recently developed sweeper, both of which serve as effective third and fourth options. His slider’s late cutting action keeps hitters off balance, while the sweeper’s slower, sweeping movement provides a striking contrast to his faster pitches. However, the velocity and overall effectiveness of his slider saw a decline in 2024. What truly sets Sasaki apart is his control and command. While he walked nine batters in his first two regular-season starts with the Dodgers (totaling 4.2 innings pitched), his ability to consistently pound the strike zone and mix pitches with precision when he’s performing at his best keeps hitters guessing and showcases his potential for dominance.

The Mechanics

Mechanically, Sasaki is a marvel of efficiency and consistency. His lean and athletic build produces a smooth, repeatable delivery which features a high leg kick and a controlled naturally-long stride (beautifully illustrated on his 2022 Bowman NPB #133 card, example above) that help generate his impressive velocity while maintaining balance and control. He has a high three-quarters arm slot and tunnels his pitches very well which enhances his deception.

“He utilizes his positions and sequencing to stretch that ‘rubber band’, instead of brute strength or extreme ranges in motion,” says Brewster of Sasaki’s general mechanics. “He’s extremely explosive, extremely fast-twitch.”

Athleticism and flexibility are key components of Sasaki’s success, contributing to both his durability and ability to execute such a dynamic repertoire. This rare combination of power, precision, and poise on the mound makes him a special pitcher to watch — and a potential star in the MLB.

From left to right: 2020 BBM #104,
2021 Topps Chrome NPB Refractor #194,
2022 Bowman NPB Fuchsia #133,
2023 Topps WBC #21 (image variation) Orange Cracked Ice Foil /25

The Cards

Collector interest in Roki Sasaki is undeniable, as evidenced by the impressive made-to-order production numbers of his 2025 Topps Now Off-Season #OS-16 card, which reached 24,219, and his 2025 Topps Now #3 card, with a production run of 22,456.

As we eagerly anticipate the release of the first pack-pulled MLB cards of Sasaki, it’s worth exploring some notable Japanese or Japan-themed cards of Roki that have captured attention among fans and collectors:

1. 2021 Topps Chrome NPB #194: His debut Topps Chrome card has become a collector’s favorite. Featuring a striking image and numerous parallels to pursue, high-grade copies of this card sell quickly and command significant prices.
2. 2020 BBM #104: The set with the longest history in Japan. BBM, or Baseball Magazine, cards have been produced since 1991. Foil facsimile autograph parallels are extremely popular. This card is the flagship must-have Japanese card of Sasaki.
3. 2020 Calbee #94: Calbee, the iconic Japanese snack food company, has been producing NPB cards since 1970. This beloved brand holds a special place in the hearts of collectors. Calbee cards are renowned for their unique design and signature rounded corners.
4. 2020 Epoch NPB #140: A premium card in Japan in terms of stock and design. The limited facsimile autograph parallels are always in high demand.
5. 2022 Bowman NPB #133: The classic prospecting brand makes its first appearance in Japan featuring a collection of cool inserts as well as Chrome and non-Chrome parallels.
6. 2023 Topps Chrome WBC #21: First official North American release celebrates Japan’s dramatic victory over the United States.

Conclusion

His journey from a high school phenomenon to a professional star in Japan, and now to a potential MLB standout, underscores Sasaki’s remarkable talent and determination. To collectors, will he be the next Big Unit or Mad Max, or maybe the next Stephen Strasburg (whose career was cut short by injuries) or Rick Ankiel? Either way, it’s going to be a fun ride. Get your popcorn and cardboard ready.

This story has been updated with additional information.