Josh Allen: Alien of the Hobby

Josh Allen, the gunslinger from Fresno, CA, began his football journey in college at Wyoming, where he showcased his raw talent and galactic potential. It was in Western New York, however, where Allen truly came into his own, transforming into an elite NFL quarterback and a beloved figure among Buffalo Bills fans.

QBs and Cards

The NFL has long been a powerhouse in American sports, with elite players — particularly quarterbacks — driving the strongest demand and highest values for their rookie cards.

In the mid-1990s, as the graded card market was starting to gain momentum among collectors and investors, Mint and Gem Mint rookie cards of legendary quarterbacks like Joe Montana, Dan Marino, and John Elway were highly sought after, and still are today. By the turn of the millennium, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning joined the ranks of elite players whose premium-grade rookie cards commanded significant interest and value.

Tom Brady’s leadership in New England’s stunning 2002 Super Bowl victory elevated his cards to the pinnacle of the modern graded card market for the next two decades. More recently, Patrick Mahomes’ exceptional career so far with the Kansas City Chiefs has propelled his slabbed rookie cards to record-breaking prices, with some selling for millions of dollars.

So, where does Josh Allen fit within this celebrated group? Let’s delve into his journey to NFL stardom.

As a Buffalo native, lifelong Bills fan, passionate card collector, and former product development specialist at Upper Deck, I can confidently say we have something truly special in Josh Allen. And by “we,” I mean football fans, Bills supporters, and the football card community alike.

The 2018 NFL Draft

In 2018, the NFL draft had several quarterbacks that had real potential to make an impact in the league and to have their key rookie cards chased just like Mahomes. Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma, Sam Darnold of USC, Josh Rosen of UCLA, Lamar Jackson of Louisville and Josh Allen of Wyoming were the top QBs on most mock-draft boards, and collectors gravitated to these young men as early pre-draft card products were released. Mayfield (#1) and Darnold (#3) were the early leaders in terms of hobby demand due to their lofty pre-draft rankings.

After the 2018 NFL Draft Combine, Josh Allen impressed scouts with his ideal size, elite arm strength, athleticism, and ability to make dynamic throws, showcasing his potential as a quarterback. However, concerns about his accuracy, decision-making, and consistency, along with questions about his college performance at Wyoming, led scouts to view him as a raw talent but with significant upside.

Legend has it, that just days before the draft, the Buffalo Bills’ top brass flew to Wyoming for a steak dinner with Allen to get to know him better. Allen, traveling from California, faced a canceled flight but didn’t let that deter him. He quickly booked another flight to Denver and drove two hours to Wyoming to meet the Bills. This determination left a strong impression on the team and helped solidify their decision to trade up and draft Allen with the 7th overall pick.

“With the 7th overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select QB Josh Allen.”

Early Impressions

Although Josh Allen showcased tremendous potential with his athleticism and powerful arm, Bills fans knew he was a work in progress. His rookie season revealed areas for improvement, particularly in accuracy and decision-making. Inconsistent mechanics and footwork contributed to these struggles, resulting in a completion percentage of 52% as a rookie. Despite these challenges, his leadership and strong work ethic earned the trust of his teammates, coaching staff, and Bills Nation.

As Allen refined his game, he made subtle but impactful mechanical adjustments between his first and second seasons. There is a fascinating feature on Twitter/X from NFL Films describing the specific mechanical changes he made.

I remember attending the Bills’ 2019 home opener and discussing Allen’s potential with friends who have been season ticket holders for over two decades. We were all intrigued by his raw yet remarkable skillset and wondered — could Josh be our Ben Roethlisberger? Could Josh be the one to lead us to our first Super Bowl victory?

By his third year, we witnessed the emergence of an elite quarterback ready to take the reins. His relentless dedication and progress turned early critics into believers.

Pandemic Card Bump

As the 2020 NFL season began, Josh Allen’s performance on the field started to soar, and his key 2018 rookie cards followed suit.

Buffalo Bills fans finally had their franchise quarterback. After years of instability at the position, Allen emerged as a game-changing talent, taking the NFL by storm. His 2018 Donruss cards in Gem Mint PSA 10 condition tripled in value after the 2020 season, averaging $300 per sale by February 2021. While prices dipped slightly, they surged again midway through the 2022 holiday season before stabilizing around $200 today.

John Boutet, Curator of the Greater Buffalo Hall of Fame is a lifelong sports card collector, primarily focused on vintage cards, who took notice of Josh Allen’s immense potential and growing popularity. Reflecting on the moment he recognized Allen as a true superstar, John remarked, “With the Tom Brady era coming to a close, Josh seized the opportunity to rise as the new king of the AFC East. In 2020, he helped put Buffalo back on the map for the first time since Doug Flutie’s memorable ‘Flutie Magic’ run in 1998–99.”

Josh Hearts Buffalo

In 2015, the Buffalo community welcomed another potential superstar, Jack Eichel, who was drafted as the Sabres’ savior with the second pick in the NHL Draft. However, Eichel never fully embraced his role as a Sabre and was ultimately traded, leaving fans disappointed.

Josh Allen, on the other hand, has been the complete opposite. Allen has wholeheartedly embraced Western New York and its passionate fanbase, and the love from Bills fans has been mutual, creating a strong bond between quarterback and community.

While Jim Kelly, the legendary Buffalo Bills quarterback, enjoyed national acclaim as a hot commodity in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the excitement surrounding Allen feels different — more enduring and transformative for Buffalo’s future.

Kelly has expressed strong admiration for Josh Allen, calling him “Our MVP” and praising his dedication. Kelly has also predicted that Allen will surpass all of his franchise records, highlighting Allen’s immense talent and potential. Allen, in turn, credits Kelly for his mentorship, particularly in understanding the game and embracing Buffalo’s community. The bond between the two reflects mutual respect, with Kelly supporting Allen through both triumphs and challenges.

The MVP is… in the game

Josh Allen made history as the first Buffalo Bills player to grace the cover of EA Sports’ Madden NFL 24 video game, a testament to his rise as one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks.

Photo credit: EA Sports

During the season, Allen delivered an MVP-winning performance, leading the Bills to the AFC Championship game and setting an NFL record for the most combined touchdowns (passing, rushing, and receiving) in a player’s first five seasons. His remarkable play, including over 3,700 passing yards, 531 rushing yards, and 40 total touchdowns, solidified his status as a dominant force in the league and a cornerstone of the Bills’ success.

Allen’s play in 2024 has re-energized his card market. Many thought there would be a drop-off in his performance with the loss of some key offensive personnel.

Josh Allen’s key cards are steadily climbing back to the peak levels they reached a few years ago. His three most popular base rookie cards — the 2018 Donruss, 2018 Donruss Optic, and 2018 Prizm — continue to hold strong appeal among collectors. As Allen establishes himself as a more consistent performer, interest is also growing in his higher-end cards, such as low-numbered parallels, autographs, and rookie-patch autographs (RPAs).

Here’s a quick snapshot of the current market values of a few of Allen’s popular rookie cards, inserts and parallels:

• 2018 Donruss #304 PSA 10 (population 9,876 copies): $200
• 2018 Donruss #304 PSA 10 / Press Proof Blue (pop 109): $500
• 2018 Donruss Optic #154 PSA 10 (pop 2,368): $350
• 2018 Donruss Optic / Holo #154 PSA 10 (pop 279): $1,000
• 2018 Panini Kaboom #JA PSA 10 (pop 47): $8,500
• 2018 Prizm #205 PSA 10 (pop 2,236): $275
• 2018 Prizm / Silver #205 PSA 10 (pop 26): $6,000

Further proving his lasting star power, Allen ranked as the number one football card seller on COMC during the first week of May — one of the largest trading card platforms in the world.

Conclusion

Will Josh Allen reach the Mahomes/Brady echelon? As a proud Buffalonian, I believe so and certainly hope so.

Allen has become our national sports icon, surpassing expectations and establishing himself as the cornerstone of a team poised to contend for the Super Bowl year after year. His key cards are destined to remain staples in football collections for years to come. With the national spotlight firmly on him, Allen has elevated his brand through numerous endorsements and television commercials, further cementing his legacy.

The journey ahead promises to be thrilling. Here’s to dreaming of a mid-February snowstorm parade in Buffalo — one that celebrates our ultimate victory, a Lombardi trophy!